Peering beyond the technology hype: "It is extremely difficult to predict which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future."
Well, duh. Part of the problem is that technology doesn't need to be cool to be useful. For example, the alphabet or writing are a form of technology. Not cool, however. Cutting edge and/or better than the competition doesn't always work, either (can you say "Betamax"?).
The problem I have, and I've said this before, is that we don't always need the technotool, but we're sort of forced into it. Cell phones, ubiquitous as they are, are not necessary to life but if you don't have one people look at you cross-eyed. They do help, particularly if you have ever paid $11 for a one-minute phone call on a pay phone. But necessary? Hardly.
Ditto the iPod, the Palm, TiVo and innumerable others. Yes, they make life easier. Do they make life better? I think the jury is still out.
Still, this article has some good points about what does and doesn't "make it." As for the Next Great Idea? Still waiting... (via elearnspace)